Data Sources & Methodology

How FutureWealthRank calculates projections and where the data comes from.

📐 Methodology

Projection Formula

FutureWealthRank uses the standard compound interest formula to project future wealth:

FV = PV × (1 + r)ⁿ + PMT × ((1 + r)ⁿ - 1) / r

Where: FV = Future Value, PV = Present Value (current net worth), r = monthly rate (annual rate ÷ 12), n = number of months, PMT = monthly contribution.

Inputs

Current net worth — Your starting point (can be negative for debt)
Monthly investment — Amount you plan to invest each month
Expected annual return — Assumed growth rate. The app defaults to 10%, the approximate long-run nominal total return of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, based on historical data from Robert Shiller (Yale) and Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) dating back to 1928. After accounting for ~3% average annual inflation (BLS CPI-U), the equivalent real return is ~7% — toggle "Real" on the results panel to see projections in today's purchasing power. The model assumes a non-negative return and does not simulate negative market returns.
Target age — When you want to project to (typically retirement age)

Percentile Calculation

After projecting your future net worth, FutureWealthRank maps this value to a percentile rank using a log-normal distribution model calibrated to data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF).

The model uses an age-cohort-adjusted median derived directly from the SCF 2022 median net worth for the target age bracket — for example, $409,900 at age 65–74 or $247,200 at age 45–54 — linearly interpolated between brackets. This answers the question: “where would I rank among Americans who are my age at retirement?”

The log-normal spread parameter (σ = 1.66) is fitted analytically to minimize error across the SCF 2022 p75, p90, and p95 all-ages thresholds simultaneously, achieving within 9% accuracy from p75 through p95. The p99 tail is understated by ~33% because extreme U.S. wealth follows a Pareto (power-law) distribution that a single log-normal cannot fully capture.

Why log-normal? Wealth distributions are highly skewed — most households cluster near the median, while a small fraction hold vastly more wealth. Log-normal distributions naturally model this pattern: they capture the long right tail (extreme wealth) while accurately representing the concentration of most households in lower-to-middle ranges. This statistical approach is widely used in economics and finance because it matches observed wealth data better than normal distributions. For academic grounding, see Saez & Zucman (2016), “Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913,” which documents log-normal sigma estimates of ~1.6–2.0 for U.S. wealth — consistent with the analytically-derived σ = 1.66 used here.

Important distinction: Percentile rankings shown are data-derived from the calibrated log-normal model. Tier ranges and names are editorial and may not correspond to specific SCF percentile bins.

Data source: The 2022 SCF is the most recent comprehensive survey of U.S. household wealth. It includes data on assets, debts, and net worth for a representative sample of American families.

Inflation Adjustment (Real vs. Nominal)

All projections are nominal by default — the future dollar amounts shown assume no adjustment for purchasing power. Enable the Real toggle in the results panel to see projections in today's dollars.

The real (inflation-adjusted) rate is derived using the Fisher equation:

r_real = (1 + r_nominal) / (1 + r_inflation) − 1

The inflation rate used is 3.0% annually — approximately the long-run historical average of the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). At a 10% nominal return, this yields a real rate of approximately 6.8% (~7%).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index (CPI-U)

Safe Withdrawal Rate (4% Rule)

The 4% rule is a retirement planning guideline suggesting that a retiree can withdraw 4% of their portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust for inflation annually, with a high probability of not outliving their savings over a 30-year retirement.

The rule originates from two foundational sources:

William Bengen (1994) — “Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data,” Journal of Financial Planning. Bengen analyzed U.S. historical market returns from 1926–1992 and found that a 4–4.5% initial withdrawal rate sustained a 30-year retirement in all historical periods tested.
The Trinity Study (1998) — Cooley, Hubbard & Walz, “Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable,” AAII Journal. Found approximately 96% historical success rate for a 4% withdrawal rate over 30 years with a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio.

Important caveat: The 4% rule is a planning guideline, not a guarantee. Lower returns, higher inflation, or longer retirements (40+ years) may require a lower withdrawal rate (3–3.5%). This app displays the 4% rule for educational context only — it is not financial advice.

How We Handle Debt (Negative Net Worth)

When current net worth is negative, FutureWealthRank treats the negative portion as debt. Debt can accrue interest at the user-entered Debt APR. Debt is not automatically paid down unless the user enters a monthly debt payment.

Investments and debt coexist: positive investable assets and contributions compound at the expected annual return, while debt accrues at the debt APR.

This is a simplified model for educational purposes. In reality, debt has its own interest rates (credit cards, student loans, mortgages) which vary widely.

📈 Percentile Benchmarks

The following net worth thresholds are based on the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) published by the Federal Reserve. These represent U.S. household net worth distribution for all families.

Percentile	Net Worth Threshold	Meaning
10th	$3,500	90% of households have more
25th	$30,600	75% of households have more
50th (Median)	$192,900	Exactly in the middle
75th	$569,400	Top 25%
90th	$1,624,100	Top 10%
95th	$3,232,200	Top 5%
99th	$13,666,600	Top 1%

Source: Federal Reserve SCF 2022, all families, nominal dollars

Note: These thresholds reflect the all-ages SCF distribution (all U.S. families combined). The calculator's personal percentile ranking uses an age-cohort-adjusted median instead — see “Median Net Worth by Age” below and the Percentile Calculation methodology above for details.

👥 Median Net Worth by Age

Wealth typically grows over a lifetime. Here's the median (50th percentile) net worth by age group, also from the SCF 2022:

Under 35

$39,000

35–44

$135,600

45–54

$247,200

55–64

$364,500

65–74

$409,900

75+

$335,600

Chart interpolation note

The “How You Stack Up” chart displays percentile bands (25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th) as continuous lines. The SCF publishes data at 13 discrete age midpoints; values between those midpoints are linearly interpolated and are not additional SCF-published data. Only the values at the published midpoints (e.g. ages 21, 27, 32, 37 …) directly reflect SCF figures. The lines are intended as visual guides, not precise per-year SCF estimates.

🏆 How Tiers Map to Percentiles

Data-Derived vs Editorial Content

Percentiles are data-derived where noted; tier ranges and names are editorial and may not correspond to specific SCF bins. Percentile comparisons reference SCF thresholds; tier boundaries and labels are chosen for clarity and storytelling purposes.

FutureWealthRank assigns "tiers" based on projected net worth. These tiers are designed to span the full range of possible outcomes, from severe debt to extreme wealth. Below is a complete mapping of all tiers.

💸 Conceptual Extreme Tiers (T-1 and T-2)

T-1 and T-2 are stylized, conceptual tiers designed to give users a sense of scale at the very bottom of the wealth distribution. They are not based on any specific real individual.

These tiers are inspired by the scale of institutional losses, national debt burdens, and major corporate bankruptcies — not typical personal debt scenarios.

Real household datasets (like the SCF) do not provide precise counts for such extremes. These tiers exist for context, perspective, and storytelling purposes.

T-1: Cosmic Debt Singularity (Below −$5B)Conceptual tier — stylized floor for scale

Inspired by institutional-scale collapses and global financial crises. Not based on any real person.

T-2: Event-Horizon Debt (−$5B to −$1M)Conceptual tier — institutional catastrophe territory

Think: failed business empires, massive legal judgments, corporate bankruptcies.

🔴 Negative Net Worth Tiers (T-3–T-6)

Important: These debt tiers are editorial ranges chosen to represent different levels of debt severity. They are not derived from SCF percentile buckets.

The SCF reports that approximately ~11–12% of U.S. families have zero or negative net worth, but does not publish detailed breakdowns by specific negative net worth ranges (e.g., what share is below -$100K).

T-3: The Debt Abyss (−$1M to −$200K)Editorial tier — no SCF data for this range

Severe personal/small business debt: collapsed real estate, failed ventures, crushing medical+student debt

T-4: Debt Crisis Mode (−$200K to −$100K)Editorial tier — no SCF data for this range

Common among medical/law school graduates (avg med school debt: ~$200K per AAMC)

T-5: The Debt Hole (−$100K to −$25K)Editorial tier — no SCF data for this range

Typical college + car loan debt range (avg student loans: ~$37K per Federal Reserve)

T-6: Debt Goblin (−$25K to $0)Editorial tier — no SCF data for this range

Modest debt: car loan (~$23K avg per Experian), credit cards, or tail end of student loans

🟡 Building Wealth Tiers (T-7–T-10)

T-7: Fresh Start ($0 – $50K)~0th to 25th percentile

Below median but positive. 25th percentile is ~$30,600 (SCF 2022)

T-8: Starter Saver ($50K – $150K)~25th to 50th percentile

Approaching median U.S. household net worth (~$192,900)

T-9: Above-Average Grinder ($150K – $300K)~50th to 65th percentile

Above median, building toward top quartile

T-10: Quietly Dangerous ($300K – $500K)~65th to 75th percentile

Approaching 75th percentile (~$569,400)

🟢 Wealth Building Tiers (T-11–T-13)

T-11: Knockin' on the Door ($500K – $1M)~75th to 85th percentile

Well above median, approaching top 10%

T-12: Money Starts Talking ($1M – $3M)~85th to 95th percentile

Above 90th percentile (~$1,624,100), millionaire status

T-13: Momentum Mode ($3M – $5M)~95th to 97th percentile

At or above 95th percentile (~$3,232,200)

🔵 Top 1% Tiers (T-14–T-15)

T-14: Upper Echelon ($5M – $10M)~97th to 99th percentile

Approaching 99th percentile (~$13,666,600)

T-15: Reality Check ($10M – $50M)~99th percentile and above

At or above the 99th percentile threshold (~$13,666,600)

🟣 Ultra-High Net Worth Tiers (T-16–T-18)

Data Limitations: The SCF is known to under-sample ultra-high net worth households. Statistics at the top 0.1% and above are estimates, and percentile claims become increasingly approximate.

For wealth above ~$50M, we rely on data from Forbes, the World Inequality Database (WID), and similar sources. These provide order-of-magnitude context, not precise statistics.

T-16: Ultra-Rare Future Tycoon ($50M – $500M)Estimated top 0.1% to 0.01%

Beyond reliable SCF sampling; estimates from Forbes/WID

T-17: Final Boss ($500M – $5B)~756 U.S. billionaires (Forbes, as of 2024, approximate)

Approaching or crossing billionaire threshold; Forbes data

T-18: Main-Character Arc ($5B+)On the order of hundreds of people globally

Beyond any survey data; Forbes/Bloomberg territory only

Note: Tier names, emojis, and lifestyle descriptions are for entertainment and motivation. The humorous copy is editorial; only the percentile comparisons (where explicitly noted) are data-backed.

🌍 Comparisons to Crises, GDP, and Markets

FutureWealthRank uses historical and economic analogies to help users understand the scale of extreme wealth and debt. These comparisons are educational analogies, not precise one-to-one equivalences.

Types of Comparisons Used

GDP Comparisons: Extreme wealth/debt levels compared to annual GDP of small countries (Source: World Bank World Development Indicators)
Market Cap Comparisons: Wealth levels compared to publicly traded company valuations (Source: S&P 500 data)
Lottery Comparisons: Wealth compared to major jackpot sizes (Source: Powerball, Mega Millions official data)
Crisis Comparisons: Extreme debt compared to institutional losses during financial crises (Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Reports)
Household Debt Comparisons: Personal debt compared to median U.S. household debt (Source: NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report)

ℹ️ Important Context

All analogies are grounded in real data from the sources listed on this page. When the app lacks precise percentile rankings (e.g., "poorest person ever"), it deliberately avoids naming any real individual and instead uses hypothetical, rounded ranges for scale and perspective.

Example Scale References

2008 Financial Crisis

Global bank losses exceeded $2 trillion (IMF)

U.S. Billionaires

Approximately ~756 as of 2024 (Forbes, approximate)

Small Country GDP

Belize: ~$2B, Bhutan: ~$3B (World Bank)

Major Lottery Jackpots

Largest Powerball: $2.04B (2022)

⚠️ Limitations & Disclaimers

Data Currency & Updates

The SCF is conducted every three years (triennial). Our distributions are based on the most recent SCF available in the project (currently 2022). Other sources (e.g., DFA) are used for qualitative cross-checking. We may update the page periodically as new data becomes available; values may lag real time. Wealth distributions change over time due to market movements, inflation, and economic conditions.

Household vs. Individual

SCF data is collected at the household/family level, not individual level. FutureWealthRank uses this data for rough comparisons, but your situation may differ if you're comparing individual rather than household wealth.

Simplified Assumptions

The projection assumes constant monthly contributions and a fixed annual return rate. In reality, income, savings rates, and investment returns vary significantly over time.

No Tax Considerations

Projections do not account for taxes on investment gains, withdrawals, or income. Actual after-tax wealth will differ.

Negative Net Worth Tiers

Our debt tiers (T-3–T-6) are editorial ranges below $0, chosen to represent different severities of debt. The SCF reports that approximately ~11–12% of families have zero or negative net worth, but does not break down specific negative net worth ranges. Any claims about "how many people" are in a specific debt tier are qualitative, not data-derived.

Ultra-High Net Worth

The SCF is known to under-sample ultra-high net worth households (billionaires, etc.). Statistics for the very top of the distribution are estimates and less reliable. For tiers above $50M, treat data as order-of-magnitude context, not precise statistics.

Percentile Display

Percentile rank represents the share of U.S. households with lower net worth than your projected value (0th percentile = lowest, 100th percentile = highest). For readability at the extremes, we display ≤1% ("below the 1st percentile") and ≥99% ("above the 99th percentile") rather than implying a precise point estimate beyond our calibrated range. Between 1% and 99%, we display the rounded percentile.

Debt Projection Model

When current net worth is negative, we treat the negative portion as debt. Debt accrues interest at the user-entered Debt APR. Debt is not automatically paid down unless the user enters a monthly debt payment. Investments and debt coexist: positive assets and contributions compound at the expected return, while debt accrues at the debt APR.

🤓 Retirement Account Contribution Limits

FutureWealthRank's "Nerd Mode" feature projects future retirement account contribution limits based on historical IRS data. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) adjusts these limits annually based on inflation, often in step increments (commonly $500), with some years remaining flat. Our projections use the historical average year-over-year dollar change from our dataset (1998 through current year; plus next-year if present in our local dataset) to estimate future limits, rounded to $500 increments to mirror IRS step behavior.

How We Calculate Future Limits

401(k) elective deferral limits (IRC 402(g)): Historical data from 1998 ($10,000) through the most recent year in our local dataset (currently 2026) ($24,500) is used for projections
Roth IRA limits: Historical data from 1998 ($2,000) through the most recent year in our local dataset (currently 2026) ($7,500) is used for projections
Both 401(k) and Roth IRA future limits use a dollar-increase method: we calculate the average year-over-year dollar change from the historical dataset, then project forward linearly
The projection calculates: Projected Limit = roundToNearest500( Current Limit + Avg Annual Dollar Increase × Years Ahead )
Projected limits are clamped so they never drop below the current-year limit
These are heuristic projections only — actual future limits depend on IRS policy and inflation rates

Roth IRA Limit Projection Method (Nerd Mode)

The IRS updates IRA contribution limits in step increments (commonly $500), not smooth percentage growth, with some years remaining flat. Therefore, we project future Roth IRA limits using the historical average year-over-year dollar change from our dataset. We round projected future limits to the nearest $500 to mirror real IRS step adjustments, and clamp projections so they never drop below the current-year limit.

Method (high level):

avgAnnualDollarIncrease = average( limit[year] - limit[year-1] ) over historical years
projectedLimit(year) = roundToNearest500( currentLimit + avgAnnualDollarIncrease × yearsAhead )
Example: If current limit is $7,000 and avg increase is ~$150/year, then 40 years ahead ≈ $13,000 after $500 rounding.

Data used:

Historical Roth IRA contribution limits from IRS guidance (starting 1998 through the most recent year in our local dataset (currently 2026); plus next-year if present in our local dataset).
Implementation source of truth: lib/data/iraContributionLimits.ts
We link-only to IRS pages; we don't scrape or republish IRS tables/graphics.

This is an estimate for education/entertainment; actual IRS limits depend on inflation + policy and may differ. Not financial advice. Limits can change.

401(k) Elective Deferral Limit Projection Method (Nerd Mode)

The IRS updates 401(k) elective deferral limits (IRC 402(g)) in step increments (commonly $500), not smooth percentage growth, with some years remaining flat. Therefore, we project future 401(k) elective deferral limits using the historical average year-over-year dollar change from our dataset. We round projected future limits to the nearest $500 to mirror real IRS step adjustments, and clamp projections so they never drop below the current-year limit.

Method (high level):

avgAnnualDollarIncrease = average( limit[year] - limit[year-1] ) over historical years
projectedLimit(year) = roundToNearest500( currentLimit + avgAnnualDollarIncrease × yearsAhead )
Example: If current limit is $24,500 and avg increase is ~$518/year, then 40 years ahead ≈ $45,000 after $500 rounding.

Data used:

Historical 401(k) elective deferral limits from IRS guidance (starting 1998 through the most recent year in our local dataset (currently 2026); plus next-year if present in our local dataset).
Implementation source of truth: lib/data/401kContributionLimits.ts
We link-only to IRS pages; we don't scrape or republish IRS tables/graphics.

This is an estimate for education/entertainment; actual IRS limits depend on inflation + policy and may differ. Not financial advice. Limits can change.

401(k) Contribution Limits (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official 401(k) contribution limits ($23,000 for 2024) and historical data for future projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-401k-and-profit-sharing-plan-contribution-limits

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

401(k) Contribution Limits - Historical Data (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Historical 401(k) elective deferral limits (1998–present; plus next-year if present in our local dataset) used to calculate the average annual dollar change for future limit projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-401k-and-profit-sharing-plan-contribution-limits

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Roth IRA Contribution Limits (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official Roth IRA contribution limits ($7,000 for 2024) and historical data for future projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2024

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Roth IRA Contribution Limits - Historical Data (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Historical Roth IRA contribution limits (1998–present; plus next-year if present in our local dataset) used to calculate the average annual dollar change for future limit projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2024

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

IRS Publication 560: Retirement Plans for Small Business (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Comprehensive retirement plan rules, including 401(k) and profit-sharing plans.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/publications/p560

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

IRS Publication 590-A: Contributions to Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs) (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official IRA contribution rules, including Traditional and Roth IRAs, limits, and tax treatment.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

🗺️ Net Worth Distribution & Methodology Sources

The probability map visualization uses the following sources for net worth distributions, population data, and metro area definitions:

How the Map is Calculated

Step 1 — Project future net worth:

We compute a future net worth estimate from the user's inputs (current net worth, monthly investment, expected annual return, and years until target age). Monthly contributions compound monthly using the selected annual return converted to a monthly rate.

Step 2 — Convert net worth to a national percentile:

The projected net worth is mapped to a percentile rank using the same log-normal distribution model described in the "Percentile Calculation" section above. This ensures consistency between the displayed percentile and the map visualization. The model uses the same hybrid approach described in the "Percentile Calculation" section above: an age-cohort-adjusted median (from SCF 2022 age brackets) combined with an all-ages spread parameter (σ = 1.66), producing an age-adjusted percentile rank relative to U.S. households.

Extreme percentiles may be displayed using inequality symbols (≤1%, ≥99%) to reflect threshold-based ranking rather than precise point estimates.

Step 3 — Turn percentile into dots:

Green dots represent the share of households at or above your projected net worth level (i.e., households that "reach this level"); gray dots represent households below it. This visualization shows the top-tail share ("how many households reach or exceed this level"), which is the complement of the percentile rank shown above (percentile ≈ 100% − reach share).

Important limitation:

This is not a literal map of where wealthy people live. The dots are arranged on a U.S. outline for intuition, but they represent shares of households, not actual geocoded households.

Data freshness:

Percentile thresholds are based on the most recent available SCF distribution data. Because SCF is collected periodically, results are an approximation.

Survey of Consumer Finances 2022 (2022) — Federal Reserve Board

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Primary source for U.S. household net worth distribution data and percentile thresholds.

URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

U.S. Census Bureau Data (2024) — U.S. Census Bureau

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Population counts and metro-area weighting assumptions for dot distribution by household concentration.

URL:https://www.census.gov/data.html

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

OMB Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Definitions (2023) — Office of Management and Budget

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Metro area boundaries used to group population centers for dot distribution weighting.

URL:https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bulletin-23-01.pdf

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Distributional Financial Accounts Q3 2024 (2024) — Federal Reserve Board

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Quarterly estimates of U.S. household wealth distribution to validate high-level patterns.

URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

📊 Data Sources

All wealth distribution statistics, percentile benchmarks, and scale comparisons in FutureWealthRank are based on the following publicly available datasets and sources:

About Pop-Culture References

Some tier "Scale Context" bullets reference fictional scenes from TV shows, films, and comics where specific dollar amounts are explicitly stated. These are purely for fun comparisons and do not affect any calculations.

All amounts are explicitly stated in dialog, on screen, or in official materials
Each example is backed by a verifiable source (primary/official sources where possible; otherwise widely used secondary references)
Non-USD currencies are converted to USD at approximate rates
We never compare to real people — only fictional characters and scenes

Survey of Consumer Finances 2022 (2022) — Federal Reserve Board

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Primary source for U.S. household net worth distribution data and percentile thresholds.

URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Survey of Consumer Finances 2019 (2019) — Federal Reserve Board

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Reference point for pre-pandemic wealth distribution comparisons.

URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/chart/#series:Net_Worth;demographic:all;population:all;units:median

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Distributional Financial Accounts Q3 2024 (2024) — Federal Reserve Board

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Quarterly estimates of U.S. household wealth distribution to validate high-level patterns.

URL:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/chart/

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

World Inequality Database (2024) — World Inequality Lab

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Global wealth distribution data for cross-country comparisons and ultra-high net worth estimates.

URL:https://wid.world/country/usa/

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

OECD Wealth Distribution Database (2023) — OECD

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Cross-country wealth inequality comparisons among developed nations.

URL:https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/oecd-wealth-distribution-database.html

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

Wealth, Asset Ownership, & Debt Tables (2022) — U.S. Census Bureau

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Household wealth, assets, and debt data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP).

URL:https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/wealth/data/tables.html

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Household Debt and Credit Report (2024) — Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Quarterly household debt balances and delinquency rates to contextualize debt tiers.

URL:https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Medical School Graduation Questionnaire (2022) — Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC)

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Medical school debt statistics (median ~$200K) to contextualize debt tiers.

URL:https://www.aamc.org/data-reports/students-residents/report/graduation-questionnaire-gq

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

Medical Debt in the US (2022) — JAMA Network / Kaiser Family Foundation

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Research on medical debt burden and its role as a leading cause of bankruptcy.

URL:https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/the-burden-of-medical-debt-in-the-united-states/

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

World Development Indicators - GDP (2024) — World Bank

CC BY 4.0

Allowed use: CC BY 4.0 license. Attribution required. Must show license and link.

How we use it: Country GDP figures for scale comparisons in extreme wealth/debt tiers.

Required Attribution (CC BY 4.0):

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators - GDP, 2024. License: CC BY 4.0. Link: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

URL:https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

Terms/Licensing: Open license (CC BY); attribution required.

World Economic Outlook Database (2024) — International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Global economic conditions, GDP forecasts, and historical data by country.

URL:https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) (2024) — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Long-run average U.S. inflation rate (~3% annually) used to convert nominal projections to real (inflation-adjusted) dollars in the Real toggle.

URL:https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

U.S. Stock Market Data (Shiller CAPE) (2024) — Robert J. Shiller, Yale University

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Cite as academic dataset.

How we use it: Long-run S&P 500 nominal total return (~10% annually) and real return (~7%) used to calibrate the default expected annual return assumption.

URL:http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Bills (2024) — Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Cite as academic dataset.

How we use it: Independent corroboration of the ~10% long-run nominal S&P 500 total return used as the default growth rate.

URL:https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

S&P 500 Market Data (2024) — S&P Dow Jones Indices

Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No scraping. No republication of tables/graphics. Do not recreate curated lists.

How we use it: Market capitalization data to compare extreme wealth to publicly traded company values.

URL:https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/

Terms/Licensing: Commercial publisher; link-only; no scraping; no republication of tables/graphics.

Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List (2024) — Forbes

Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No scraping. No republication of tables/graphics. Do not recreate curated lists.

Data as of: January 1, 2024

Policy reviewed: December 1, 2024

How we use it: Real-time billionaire tracking (~756 U.S. billionaires) for ultra-high net worth tier context.

URL:https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/

Terms/Licensing: Commercial publisher; link-only; no scraping; no republication of tables/graphics.

Powerball Jackpot History (2024) — Multi-State Lottery Association

Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No scraping. No republication of tables/graphics. Do not recreate curated lists.

How we use it: Historical jackpot data (largest: $2.04B) for lottery comparisons in wealth tiers.

URL:https://www.powerball.com/previous-results

Terms/Licensing: Commercial publisher; link-only; no scraping; no republication of tables/graphics.

Mega Millions Jackpot History (2024) — Mega Millions

Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No scraping. No republication of tables/graphics. Do not recreate curated lists.

How we use it: Historical jackpot data used alongside Powerball for lottery scale comparisons.

URL:https://www.megamillions.com/Winning-Numbers/Previous-Drawings.aspx

Terms/Licensing: Commercial publisher; link-only; no scraping; no republication of tables/graphics.

Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data (1994) — William P. Bengen

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Basis for the 4% withdrawal guideline used in retirement spending calculations.

URL:https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/OCT94-determining-withdrawal-rates-using-historical-data

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

The 4% Rule (2024) — Investopedia

Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No scraping. No republication of tables/graphics. Do not recreate curated lists.

How we use it: Comprehensive explanation of the 4% rule, its origins, limitations, and modern applications.

URL:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

Terms/Licensing: Commercial publisher; link-only; no scraping; no republication of tables/graphics.

401(k) Contribution Limits (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official 401(k) contribution limits ($23,000 for 2024) and historical data for future projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-401k-and-profit-sharing-plan-contribution-limits

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

401(k) Contribution Limits - Historical Data (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-401k-and-profit-sharing-plan-contribution-limits

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Roth IRA Contribution Limits (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official Roth IRA contribution limits ($7,000 for 2024) and historical data for future projections.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2024

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Roth IRA Contribution Limits - Historical Data (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/amount-of-roth-ira-contributions-that-you-can-make-for-2024

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

IRS Publication 560: Retirement Plans for Small Business (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Comprehensive retirement plan rules, including 401(k) and profit-sharing plans.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/publications/p560

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

IRS Publication 590-A: Contributions to Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs) (2024) — Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Official IRA contribution rules, including Traditional and Roth IRAs, limits, and tax treatment.

URL:https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590a

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

Global Financial Crisis Report (2009) — International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Academic Link Only

Allowed use: Link only. No figures/tables reproduction. Minimal quoting.

How we use it: Analysis of 2008 Global Financial Crisis (bank losses >$2 trillion) for scale comparisons in extreme debt tiers.

URL:https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/01/

Terms/Licensing: Third-party source; subject to its own terms; no table/figure reproduction without permission.

Bank Failures in Brief (2024) — Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Historical data on bank failures in the United States for institutional-scale financial collapse context.

URL:https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

The Great Depression (2013) — Federal Reserve History

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Historical essay on the Great Depression (1929-1939) for economic crisis context.

URL:https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-depression

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

U.S. Census Bureau Data (2024) — U.S. Census Bureau

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Population counts and metro-area weighting assumptions for dot distribution by household concentration.

URL:https://www.census.gov/data.html

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

OMB Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Definitions (2023) — Office of Management and Budget

Government Reference

Allowed use: OK to cite/quote minimally. No seals/branding. No implied endorsement.

How we use it: Metro area boundaries used to group population centers for dot distribution weighting.

URL:https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Bulletin-23-01.pdf

Terms/Licensing: U.S. Government source (generally public domain; check page-specific notices).

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📊 Data & Model Limitations

Source datasets may be updated, revised, or discontinued; we may not reflect the latest values at all times.

The Survey of Consumer Finances is periodic; wealth distributions change over time.

Percentiles and tier labels are approximate. Extreme values are less reliable due to sampling limitations at the tails.

Geographic "dot maps" are illustrative and do not represent actual household locations.